Charting the Road from Belem to Antalya: Roadmap to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels Developed by the COP30 Presidency
Ana Trueba, Graduate Student in Climate and Quaternary Studies
The theme for day two, set by the Presidency, was energy and transportation. Among the discussions was one about a report published in October this year by the previous COP presidency (Belem) outlining a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF). The Belem presidency took the findings from COP30 and continued to develop a framework for TAFF over the past year.
Overall, the mood of the session on the roadmap was hopeful but the Belem Presidency urged acceleration of fossil fuel reductions if goals are to be met, and the meeting hall was open to parties, observers, and press. The plenary hall was entirely full. Among the speakers discussing the roadmap were UN Secretary General António Guterres, former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, and several delegates who spoke in favor of the roadmap. The TAFF roadmap is one of two roadmaps that were published by the COP30 presidency, the other report outlines a framework for enhancing efforts toward halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030.
The framework considers TAFF from three pillars: demand, supply, and economic transition. For each pillar, there are four steps for transition, divided into two perspectives. The first perspective, exposure, covers Steps 1 and 2 which are first to identify where the country lies on the Belem readiness index, and then which archetype the country exemplifies. The second, capacity, covers steps three and four, which involve identifying archetype-specific implementation levers and using the Belem readiness tripod to integrate readiness from all three pillars.
Additionally, the roadmap introduces the concept of TAFF Mutirão–meaning joint effort–which is based on three pillars: Institutions and long term signals, market signals and capital flows, and scaling physical transformation. It encourages public and private sector coordination on transition and technology development, aligning physical incentives, and expanding access and grids and storage while decreasing methane emissions as a priority, as well as prioritizing developing technologies that are more energy efficient.
The UN Secretary General urged that every country must be able to show what it has done to cut fossil fuel use or production, and how it measures progress by the second global stocktake in 2028. Speakers promoted TAFF, stating that there are major advantages to TAFF, including that renewable energy sources increase resiliency and energy security by decreasing dependence on imported fossil fuels, and that reports have shown that renewable energy is cheaper than fossil fuels. Some of the key outcomes that were emphasized were that the acceleration of TAFF must start now and must cover all sectors of the economy and all greenhouse gasses. Speakers emphasized that Belem set the stage for TAFF, Antalya must accelerate the effort. The development of each country’s roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels must be grounded by national circumstances. Countries with more capacity must take the lead and coordinate international finance, and countries with less capacity must have access to finance for transition. Transitioning away from fossil fuels is urgent. We are already expected to overshoot the 1.5 degree goal, and need to accelerate TAFF efforts. The framework published by COP30 gives nations a just, equitable, and clear path forward. Climate specialist Rachel Kyte from the United Kingdom summarized it best: “TAFF is urgent and inevitable… If we get lost, we only have ourselves to blame.”