As Greenland Decides” by Norchi and Lynch.

https://www.jonaa.org/content/as-greenland-decides

OPINON

Authors: Charles H. Norchi, Amanda H. Lynch
Photograph: Angu Motzfeldt

February 2025

This March Greenland will hold a national election. Likely on the minds of the voters is the Greenland saying, “nothing about us, without us.” Since US President Donald Trump stated his ambition to acquire Greenland by sale or by force, the election and political discourse among the almost 60,000 Inuit inhabitants of the world’s largest island has acquired a new level of intensity.

Leading up to the elections, Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede has emphasized the goal of independence. Yet, as they go to the polls, the people paving a road to independence might find themselves contemplating the prospect of substituting one colonizer for another. 

In this article, the authors cast light on the past, present, and future issues of international interest that Greenlanders face in the upcoming elections. Written by Professors Dr. Charles H. Norchi from the University of Maine School of Law and Dr. Amanda H. Lynch from Brown University, Rhode Island, who have extensive research and field experience in Greenland and the Arctic more broadly.

Nothing about us, without us

“Nothing about us, without us” is a sentiment that springs from long experience with emissaries, speculators, and colonizers. Eiríkr rauði established the Norse settlements in the tenth century, highlighting the promise of an island already inhabited by Dorset and later Thule (early Inuit) peoples. In the eighteenth century, missionaries led by Hans Egede arrived from Scandinavia, and traders established a monopoly. Then, the newly independent Norway tussled with Denmark for sovereign control until a 1933 decision of the League of Nations Permanent Court of International Justice ensured that the world’s largest island would be part of the Danish realm.

During World War II, when Denmark was occupied by Nazi Germany, the United States concluded an agreement with the Danish Envoy in Washington to construct and operate military installations in Greenland.  When in 1946, President Truman offered to purchase Greenland, Denmark refused. Greenlanders were not consulted.

The American Space Force Base in Greenland, originally called Thule Air Base, was built on land that the locals call Pituffik. The base has been strategically critical to the United States since the Second World War. In the Roosevelt White House there was alarm that Germany could use its occupation of Denmark to then control Greenland, the adjacent waters, and the top of the world.  Thus, Secretary of State Cordell Hull and Danish Envoy Henrik Kauffmann concluded a security agreement by which the United States would “have the right to construct, maintain and operate such landing fields and seaplane facilities and radio and meteorological facilities as may be necessary.”

The Agreement also provided that “the United States [would] respect all legitimate interests in Greenland …pertaining to the native population.” Soon thereafter, the Inuit population was forcibly relocated, Pituffik was renamed Thule, and America’s northernmost military installation was established, including a deepwater port and a 10,000 foot runway.

In subsequent years, the United States and Denmark entered into international agreements regarding the construction, maintenance, and operation of U.S. military facilities in Greenland. These arrangements served U.S. and Allied security interests throughout World War II, the Cold War, and into the present era. The war in Ukraine, Russia’s growing Arctic presence, China’s pursuit of High North resources, and climate change have further enhanced Greenland’s strategic value to the United States. In 2004, the U.S.-Denmark-Greenland Joint Committee was established, with the American Air Base at Thule as a key focus. The governments agreed that base maintenance and expansion services would be procured from Danish, and particularly, Greenlandic sources.

Today, the newly renamed Pituffik base supports missile warning, missile defense and space surveillance missions. At the renaming ceremony in 2023, common interests were aligned. Chief of Space Operations U.S. Space Force Gen. Chance Saltzman remarked: This renaming represents our wish to celebrate and acknowledge the rich cultural heritage of Greenland and its people.”

US Ambassador Alan Leventhal observed: We recognize the important role this installation has played in ensuring our countries and all of North America have remained safe and secure. The Ambassador also acknowledged that: the creation of this base caused the movement in the 1950s of the community who called this place home, resulting in hardship and pain for those people and their descendants.

Defending Greenland’s sovereignty

The Trump administration’s musings over the acquisition of Greenland have triggered pointed responses. Prime Minister Egede responded quickly, “Greenland is ours, and the sovereignty of the Arctic territory is not for sale.” 

European leaders have reiterated their commitment to defending Greenland’s sovereignty, in turn upholding and reinforcing international law. On 29 January 2025, Danish MEP Morten Løkkegaard suggested that Greenland should rejoin the European Union. This would reverse the decision following the referendum of 1982 to leave a precursor to the EU to formally leave the bloc in 1985.

On 27 January 2025, Denmark responded in more concrete terms, committing 14.6 billion kroner ($2.05 billion) to bolster security in the region. The funding includes new Arctic patrol ships, drones, and enhanced satellite surveillance, demonstrating Copenhagen’s commitment to control the security landscape in Greenland.

Why want Greenland now?

Why would the United States, or indeed any other power, want Greenland now?  At the dawn of the Cold War, there were strategic advantages, which are even more evident today. Greenland can enhance the United States’ eyes on the Arctic, its passages, its resources, Russia’s growing Arctic militarization, and China’s quest for high north resources. Greenland is again in the sights of American foreign policy.

At the renaming ceremony, General Saltzman observed that “renewed strategic competition in the Arctic can be expected with Russia’s historically significant presence in the region and the People’s Republic of China self-proclaimed near-Arctic power, seeking opportunities to expand its influence.” Because of the geopolitics of our time, the US-Greenland partnership is again a strategic priority.

Greenland’s hydrocarbon reserves, as estimated by the US Geological Survey, are substantial, with 31.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent and approximately 4,190 billion cubic meters of natural gas. To put these figures into perspective, they are roughly comparable to the known reserves of oil and gas in Alaska and the broader Arctic regions controlled by the United States.

For instance, the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and other Alaskan petroleum reserves are estimated to contain about 38 billion barrels of oil—meaning that Greenland’s potential oil reserves are around 83% of Alaska’s known reserves. Greenland’s gas reserves are around 67% of Alaska’s North Slope and surrounding basin known natural gas reserves. However, in 2021, The Government of Greenland, led by the Inuit Ataqatigiit party, ceased granting exploration licenses, placing a moratorium on new projects in its waters.

Along with uranium deposits, Greenland is also rich in rare earth minerals that are critical to the global effort to transition away from a fossil fuel-based energy economy. The Tanbreez project in southwest Greenland alone holds an estimated 28 million tonnes of rare earth oxides. Demand for rare earth elements, critical materials in the manufacturing of electric vehicles, wind turbines, and batteries, currently outstrips supply. China, Australia, the European Union, and others covet those deposits.

Access to these materials presents a strategic advantage as well, providing the basis for infrastructure in new forms of presence, surveillance, and, indeed, warfighting. This importance was evident in the recent advocacy by Denmark and the U.S., acting in concert, to ensure that a controlling interest in Australian-managed mining company Rimbal—licensed to exploit the rare earth elements asset known as the Tanbreez project in southwest Greenland—was acquired by Critical Metals Corp (Nasdaq: CRML), despite a lower offer than the Chinese state-owned competitor.

Meanwhile, Greenland Minerals, a subsidiary of Energy Transition Minerals, whose largest shareholder is Shenghe Resources Holding Company, remains in arbitration with the Government of Greenland and the Government of Denmark over its exploitation rights under the existing exploration license for the Kvanefjeld asset in the same region.  The dispute arose from Greenland’s 2021 ban on uranium mining, which represents a small but significant component of the Kvanefjeld project plan.

Damage to precious fisheries from mining effluent

Indeed, because rare earth minerals are often co-located with uranium, there are concerns over mining due to the potential for damage to Greenland’s precious fisheries from mining effluent. As a result, accessing these mineral deposits remains controversial. Furthermore, severe limitations in infrastructure and workforce, along with the ongoing challenges presented by severe Arctic conditions (climate change notwithstanding), means that realizing the potential of these resources will have high startup costs. From a Greenland perspective, monetizing such resources could replace Danish economic aid and thus support progress toward independence. 

Climate change, however, is a complicating factor. Sea ice is retreating from the eastern side of the Arctic more rapidly than the western side, where Arctic refugia may be expected to persist for several decades. Indeed, this has been an enabler of the expansion of infrastructure throughout the Russian Arctic.

On current trajectories of change, routes that cross the central Arctic Ocean and skirt the eastern coast of Greenland, along with routes through the Northwest Passage, can be expected to be routinely navigable in the second half of this century, if not earlier. These routes can potentially redistribute ship traffic away from the increasingly active Russian-administered Northern Sea route. Furthermore, these routes present alternatives to the Suez Canal and Panama Canal for major US ports on both coasts.

The diminution of sea ice brings the promise of enhanced access for Greenland’s coastal population. Greenlandic settlements depend on maritime transport for essential goods such as food, fuel, and medical supplies. This critical function is carried out by Royal Arctic Line, a Greenlandic shipping company that holds an exclusive agreement with the Greenlandic government to provide freight services to the country’s remote communities. The company operates a fleet of specialized vessels designed to navigate Arctic conditions, ensuring a stable supply chain even in the harshest months.

As ice-free periods extend, the efficiency and frequency of these resupply missions could improve, reducing costs and increasing reliability for local populations. Existing and planned industrial developments associated with mining and energy could see their operational costs reduced. Furthermore, year-round access could provide new opportunities for fisheries and tourism, as well as the development of new economic activities.

Retreating land ice reveals more usable territory, potentially unlocking new opportunities for infrastructure development, mineral extraction, and expanded agriculture and even forestry. However, with this thaw comes stronger and more damaging storms, coastal erosion, and increased risks of landslides due to the destabilization of permafrost. Ice sheet “tsunamis,” caused by massive glacial calving events, threaten coastal communities and infrastructure, creating new hazards for residents and maritime activities.

Red, White, and Blueland

Furthermore, as long-frozen ice melts, it may release toxins that were previously locked away, including persistent organic pollutants and radioactive waste left behind by Cold War-era American military installations, such as Camp Century. These contaminants pose serious risks to marine ecosystems and traditional hunting and fishing practices that sustain Greenlandic communities. The challenge for Greenland’s government will be balancing the economic opportunities presented by a changing Arctic with the environmental and health risks that come with the rapid transformation of its landscape. 

The Greenland Self-Government Act came into force on 21 June 2009, recognizing that the people of Greenland have “a right to self-determination under international law.” Chapter Eight, titled “Greenland’s Access to Independence,” states that “Decisions regarding Greenland’s independence shall be taken by the people of Greenland” and that “Independence for Greenland shall imply that Greenland assumes sovereignty over the Greenland territory.” 

Nevertheless, on 10 February 2025, United States Congressman Earl “Buddy” Carter introduced a Bill in the United States House of Representatives “To authorize the President to enter into negotiations to purchase or otherwise acquire Greenland and to rename Greenland Red, White, and Blueland.”

No such thing as the better colonizer

In the capital, Nuuk, the Greenlandic government operates with ministries, including a Department of Independence, a Parliament (the Inatsisartut), and a Constitutional Commission established in 2017. Although Greenland remains within the Danish Realm, it has government representations to foreign capitals and to international organizations. On 28 April 2023, the Constitutional Commission submitted a draft Constitution to the Inatsisartut, which, inter alia, enshrines an Inuit land law perspective—where property is communally owned and thus not subject to alienation.

In February 2025, Prime Minister Egede said, “We are in the midst of a serious period, a time we have never experienced in our country.” Greenlanders have alternative futures to ponder, from maintaining self-governance within the Danish Realm to pursuing full independence. Along the way, there will be outside interests vying for influence and, at times, the bluster of a hostile takeover. Some will perceive Greenland as merely a prize, while others will address Greenland as a partner. MP Kuno Fencker has observed, “It is utopia to think about a sovereign Greenlandic state without the US being involved in some way.” Whatever the way, Greenlanders will decide. As Inuit Circumpolar Council Chair Sara Olsvig has stated, “There is no such thing as the better colonizer.”▢

In February 2025, Prime Minister Egede said, “We are in the midst of a serious period, a time we have never experienced in our country.” Greenlanders have alternative futures to ponder, from maintaining self-governance within the Danish Realm to pursuing full independence. Along the way, there will be outside interests vying for influence, and at times, the bluster of hostile takeover. Some will perceive Greenland as merely a prize, while others will address Greenland as a partner. MP Kuno Fencker has observed, “It is utopia to think about a sovereign Greenlandic state without the US being involved in some way.” Whatever the way, Greenlanders will decide. As Inuit Circumpolar Council Chair Sara Olsvig has stated, “There is no such thing as the better colonizer.”

Charles H. Norchi is the Benjamin Thompson Professor of Law at the University of Maine School of Law, director of the Center for Oceans and Coastal Law, and a faculty member of the Climate Change Institute of the University of Maine. Prof Norchi is an expert in international law, human rights law, geopolitics and a member of the JONAA advisory board.

Amanda H. Lynch is the  Sloan Lindemann and George Lindemann, Jr. Distinguished Professor of Environment and Society and Professor of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences at Brown University. She is an expert in polar climate system modelling, indigenous environmental knowledge and climate policy analysis.

Angu Motzfeldt is a Greenlandic photographer, visual artist, and well-known musician, based in Nuuk. He is a founding member of the JONAA photojournalistic team.