Ice core and climate reanalysis analogs to predict Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere climate changes – Elsevier – Quaternary Science Reviews – Mayewski et al.

P.A.Mayewski, A.M. Carleton, S.D. Birkel, D. Dixon, A.V. Kurbatov1,2, E. Korotkikh1,2, J. McConnell4, M. Curran5,6, J. Cole-Dai7, S. Jiang8, C. Plummer5,9, T. Vance5, K.A. Maasch1,2, S.B. Sneed1, and M. Handley1

A primary goal of the SCAR initiated AntClim21 (Antarctic Climate in the 21st Century) Scientific Research Programme is to apply understanding of past and present climate as analogs for future Antarctic and Southern Hemisphere climate; with emphasis, in this paper, on changes in atmospheric circulation because the atmosphere rapidly transports heat, moisture, momentum, and pollutants, throughout the middle to high latitudes.  We provide a framework for achieving this AntClim21 goal that includes: a description of basic climate parameters; comparison of existing climate reanalyses; and ice core sodium records as proxies for the frequencies of marine air mass intrusion spanning the past ~2000 years. The resulting climate analog examples include: a continuation of the current trend in Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate characterized by some regions of warming and some cooling at the surface of the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ozone healing, a generally warming climate, increases in meridional versus zonal winds, and natural variability.  We also investigate associations between Antarctic atmospheric circulation features, notably the Amundsen Sea Low, and primary climate teleconnections including the Southern Annular Mode, ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and solar irradiance variations.

Elsevier – Quaternary Science Reviews, Volume 155, Jan. 2017